Author: Patrick Vaughn, Jeff Gerber, Kerry Cooper, Jeremiah Stewart
Update: Good Saturday Morning Southeast Texas
Monday Night through Tuesday...
Single-run global models (the Euro and GFS) shows roughly between 1 and 7 inches of snow accumulating across Southeast Texas in one form or another. The National Blend shows about 2-5 inches. This would be the 2nd or third highest on record. Again, this is raw model data...there's no guarantee we'll see this much, but then again...
Ensemble modeling shows on average 1 to 4 inches.
A Winter Storm Warning will likely be in effect.
Though we likely won't eclipse 1895, IF these numbers verify, then this could be the 2nd or 3rd highest snowfall accumulations across Southeast Texas in recorded history.
Forecast
Overcast & cool tonight, last mild day tomorrow ahead of Arctic Blast
Significantly colder Monday through Wednesday likely Monday Night through Tuesday across Southeast Texas.
Updated: 7:10 AM CST January 18, 2025
Forecast Discussion
Saturday, mostly sunny skies are forecast ahead of Sunday Morning's Arctic cold front.
Drastically colder weather conditions are forecast Monday through at least Wednesday of Next week. Hard freezes are expected with wind chills in the teens. You'll need to take care of the 4 "P's" - People, Pets, Pipes and Plants. Lows will likely be well down into the 20's with highs in the 30's.
RELATED: Weather Impact Alert set for Monday night through Wednesday morning due to cold temps, possible snow
Monday Night through Tuesday modeling has trended towards snow due developing low pressure in the gulf. While this isn't locked in so, changes are still possible and this isn't the final word. As we get into the window for high resolution modeling around late Saturday, we'll begin to be able to ascertain what is possible including amounts. Regardless, if this trend holds, then this is a much-improved outlook compared to a nasty mix of freezing rain and sleet.
Wednesday Morning could be an issue for travel if there's any accumulating wintry precipitation Tuesday with lows in the lower to middle 20's expected.
Warmer weather is expected Thursday with scattered showers in the forecast.
Short Term Forecast
Triangle Saturday: Partly cloudy, mild and breezy. Highs in the middle 60's. Winds: South 5-15 mph.
Lakes Area Saturday: Partly cloudy, mild and breezy. Highs in the lower 60's. Winds: South 5-15 mph.
Triangle Saturday night: Mostly cloudy and cool. Lows in the middle 50's. Winds: Southwest 5-10 mph.
Lakes Area Saturday night: Mostly cloudy and cool. Lows in the lower 50's. Winds: Southwest 3-8 mph.
Extended Forecast
Saturday (1/18): Becoming mostly sunny, mild and breezy. Low near: 55°. High near: 64°. Winds: Northwest 5-10 mph.
Sunday (1/19): Sunny and much colder. Low near: 36°. High near: 47°. Winds: North 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Monday (1/20): Cloudy, cold and windy. Low near: 27°. High near: 39°. Winds: Northeast 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Tuesday (1/21): Cloudy, cold with a 80% coverage of snow. Low near: 25°. High near: 30°. Winds: Northeast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wednesday (1/22): Partly cloudy, cold. Low near: 17°. High near: 37°. Winds: East 5-10 mph.
Thursday (1/23): Partly cloudy, warmer with a 20% coverage of rain. Low near: 34°. High near: 53°. Winds: Northeast 5-10 mph.
Friday (1/23): Partly cloudy, warmer with a 20% coverage of rain. Low near: 34°. High near: 53°. Winds: Northeast 5-10 mph.
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