Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jul 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Category 4 Hurricane Beryl is centered near 17.1N 76.1W at 03/1500 UTC or 70 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica, moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are currently near 42 ft. Numerous strong convection is from 14N to 20N between 71W and 78W. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will pass near or over Jamaica during the next several hours. After that, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica later today and the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to impact the Cayman Islands later today and spread toward portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Waves... A tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde Islands extending from 04N to 20N with axis near 29W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly linked to the monsoon and ITCZ from 06N to 11N between 25W and 33W. A tropical wave (Invest 96L) is moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis near 61W early this afternoon. The wave is moving westward very rapidly westward at 25-30 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 16N between 57W and 65W. Associated winds are 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward across the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles today.
A tropical wave formerly in the far western Caribbean is now inland Central America with axis near 89W and is not generating convection over the Caribbean waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues SW to 09N29W to 06N35W. The ITCZ extends from 06N35W to 04N43W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm S of the monsoon/ITCZ between 26W and 40W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on dangerous Hurricane Beryl, forecast to enter the Gulf Thu night and Fri. Hurricane Beryl is near 17.1N 76.1W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 954 mb. High pressure along the eastern United States extends a ridge across the eastern and central Gulf, and is supporting light to gentle E to SE winds along with slight seas to 3 ft basin-wide. Off SE Mexico, a surface trough is generating scattered showers over the offshore waters between Tampico and Veracruz. Another trough extends from the Florida Panhandle westward to southern Louisiana and is generating scattered showers over Alabama, Pensacola and Mississippi adjacent waters. For the forecast, a weak ridge across the northern Gulf will linger through Thu in advance of Beryl, now approaching Jamaica in the west-central Caribbean. Beryl is expected to maintain a W-NW motion and weaken slowly, moving inland over the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning near 19.7N 88.2W, and weakening to a tropical storm. Beryl is expected to emerge off the western Yucatan Peninsula near 20.5N 90.7W Fri evening. Beryl will then turn more NW and strengthen to a hurricane over the Gulf near 23.5N 96W Sun morning. There remains some uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on dangerous Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Major Hurricane Beryl is near 17.1N 76.1W at 11 AM EDT, moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Aside from Hurricane Beryl, fast moving tropical wave (AL96) that was E of the Lesser Antilles early this morning is already racing across the E Caribbean and generating scattered heavy showers and tstms. Aside from the convection associated with the wave, winds to 30 kt and seas to 12 ft are also accompanying this wave that currently has low chances of development. See the Tropical Waves Section for further details. With the Azores High associated ridge in place just N of the basin, fresh to strong trade winds prevail in the central Caribbean while NE winds of the same magnitude are ongoing in the NW basin. Fresh to strong winds over the central region are confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass. The eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough supports heavy showers and tstms over the SW Caribbean S of 14N. Rough seas in the 8-12 ft range associated with Major Hurricane Beryl continue to affect the central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin as well. For the forecast, Beryl is expected to maintain a W-NW motion and weaken slowly, reaching near 17.8N 78.7W this evening, near 18.5N 82.3W Thu morning, near 19N 85.5W Thu evening, then move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning near 19.7N 88.2W, where it will weaken to a tropical storm. Beryl will then turn more NW and move across the western Gulf of Mexico Fri evening through Sun night. A surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls is expected to move across the tropical N Atlantic today, then across the eastern and central Caribbean late today through early Fri, associated with a strong tropical wave (AL96). Fresh to strong E to SE winds will then prevail across much of the central and western Caribbean this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on Invest 96L located east of the Lesser Antilles, and on dangerous Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean Sea. Major Hurricane Beryl is approaching Jamaica near 17.1N 76.1W at 11 AM EDT, moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing over the offshore waters N of 27N between 57W and 67W. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong SW winds associated with what could be a pre-frontal trough ahead of a stationary front just N of the area. Scattered showers are also ongoing in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage as Beryl is just S of the area. Otherwise, the entire subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores High associated ridge, which is maintaining gentle to moderate NE to E winds across most of the region, except for fresh winds across the Greater Antilles adjacent waters. Seas across the region are moderate in the 4 to 7 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, Beryl is expected to maintain a W-NW motion across the Caribbean and weaken slowly, moving inland over the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning near 19.7N 88.2W, where it will weaken to a tropical storm. Beryl will then move NW over the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen to a hurricane over the Gulf Sat through Sun. Otherwise, central Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge southwestward to N Florida to support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N. Winds and seas will be locally strong north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through the next several days as Beryl moves through the Caribbean. A decaying cold front will sink south of 31N through early Thu, then stall and linger near 30N through the end of the week.
Below Key Message from 11am
