12News Meteorologist Patrick Vaughn
HIGH CHANCE | Invest 91 L now has a high chance of developing into a tropical storm or stronger during the next 7 days as it moves north into the NW Gulf of Mexico. A plane is scheduled to fly out into the system Sunday. It's very early and modeling will do poorly (every run will show something different) on exactly where and how strong it will be until about Monday.
WEATHER IMPACT 7 DAY Forecast
Invest 91 L has been designated in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf of Mexico).
A plane has not yet investigated the system but one will Sunday. There is little data currently going into the models. So, they are of little use right now and will change every run until the plane investigates. So, we are in a speculation mode currently.
What I can tell you is that we think the system will move generally north or northwest through about Tuesday and then speed up making a big turn northeast to east thanks to strong upper-level wind shear or steering from the west over Coastal Texas. The further west it goes, the higher the impacts could be locally…so, we want it to stay east as much as possible. My gut feeling (since I can’t depend upon modeling) is that this could strengthen into a depression or tropical storm...again, this is pure speculation. A Potential Tropical Cyclone Watch could be issued sometime Monday.
The EXACT track will determine how much rain we get. IF it’s mainly a Louisiana storm, the we don’t get much in SE Texas. IF it’s more of an Upper Texas Coast landfall, then that’s a whole other ball game. At this VERY early juncture, 3-7 inches is the best I can do right now with a landfall between Wednesday Morning and Thursday Morning depending on which model you go with. Again, it’s just too early to tell where a landfall will occur. Regardless, this will not be another Harvey or Imelda.
WEATHER IMPACT ALERT Wednesday and Thursday
Heavy rain possible
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